The future of gas stations in Europe

By 2050, two out of three gas stations in Europe could disappear.

This dramatic decline is being driven by several major shifts: the rise of electric vehicles, the planned phase-out of internal combustion engines, and a profound transformation in how people use and experience mobility. Together, these trends are steadily eroding the profitability of the traditional gas station model.

Yet, behind this projected decline lies a strategic opportunity: to reinvent gas stations as hubs for energy and mobility services. Tomorrow’s stations will be more connected, more local, and more sustainable. They won’t just distribute fuel, they’ll deliver services, experiences, and new forms of value.

This study provides a unique, data-driven projection of the transformation ahead, looking out to 2050. It also outlines concrete strategies for legacy players - including operators, oil companies, fuel distributors, and local governments - to adapt and thrive.

To map out how Europe's gas station network could evolve, we built a model based on actual fuel consumption data by country. Our approach rests on three main pillars:

• The recent evolution of vehicle fleets (by engine type)
• Average fuel consumption per engine type
• Annual mileage per driver in each country

By cross-referencing these datasets, we projected how total fuel demand is likely to change year by year across Europe. Linking this demand to the average volume sold per station allowed us to estimate how many stations might remain in each country by 2050.

This method provides a nuanced view of the transition, incorporating growing EV adoption, changes in mobility behavior, and improvements in energy efficiency. It also reflects national specificities.

In our central scenario, which aligns with the European Green Deal and Fit for 55 targets, the number of gas stations in the EU-27 plus the UK is projected to decrease from 120,000 today to 41,099 by 2050, representing a 66% reduction.

Stations in rural or low-traffic areas will be the first to feel the impact of declining volumes. In contrast, stations in urban areas or those offering a wider range of services will be more resilient.

To test the robustness of our model, we also explored an alternative scenario in which the EU’s planned ban on internal combustion vehicle sales is delayed from 2035 to 2040. Belgium, a country at the forefront of electrification, served as a test case.

Results for Belgium:

• Ban maintained in 2035 ->78% electrified fleet and a 71% reduction in the number of stations by 2050.
• Ban postponed to 2040 -> fleet electrified at 55% only, and a decline in the number of stations limited to -56%.

Results for France:

• From 11,040 stations in 2022 to 3694 in 2050, representing a 67% drop, in line with the European trend. 

As station volumes decline, operators will need to reinvent their business models along four key dimensions:

• Diversifying the Offers: Invest in EV charging infrastructure, expand alternative fuel offerings (bio-CNG, green hydrogen, e-fuels), and introduce shared mobility solutions like carpooling, scooter docks, or shared vehicles.
• Unlocking New Revenue Streams: Increase site attractiveness with high-margin services like fast food, parcel drop-off points, local retail, or smart lockers.
• Reducing Operational Costs: Automate processes, share infrastructure, and optimize station size and location to preserve profitability.
• Enhancing Customer Experience: Redesign stations as practical, appealing stopovers with high-value services, including digital customer journeys, smart services, fast access, and extended hours. The goal is to retain customers who prioritize convenience and comfort, even for short stops.