Power Price Forecast bot

The Power Price Forecast bot plays a key role in operations of all actors across the power value chain.

It provide power producers, traders and providers with a price model forecast in order to define optimal operation point and manage risk for a generating fleet, according to the expected power price and demand, or define the best sourcing and pricing strategy.

Distribution system operator and provider will base their sourcing strategy and tariffs on forecast of prices for several power products on the EPEX Spot and EEX stock exchange.

This bot offers forecasts for spot and futures prices in the French market, using two years of spot prices and temperature history as well as futures prices over the forecast period.

Forecasts are computed in two steps:

• A first component is computed to capture seasonal and temperature effects and a second component is computed to capture the influence of futures prices over the forecast period: this component result in the initial forward curve.

• Based on this curve, a 2-factor diffusion model is applied, leading to an envelope of solutions: the median is considered as the forecast, and a quantile envelope can be set to assess the uncertainty of the forecast.

If you wish to learn more about Power Price Forcast bot, use the link bellow to access a demo !