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Why contrails matter for aviation's climate future

Contrails are emerging as an important part of aviation’s climate footprint, though their effects are difficult to quantify. Rather than a blind spot, they are now a new frontier for innovation and collaboration, with the potential to accelerate progress toward a lower-impact future.

Aviation is facing several challenges ahead

  • Air traffic is set to double by within 20 years, increasing from 4.9 billion passengers in 2024 to 9.2 billion in 2045.
  • The sky is under pressure : the North Atlantic Corridor handles 1800 flights per day, accounting for nearly half of conbtrails induced warming.
  • The regulatory framework is tightening in 2025, with EU regulations evolving.

Optimizing flights trajectories for immediate gains

Small trajectories change could cut contrails impact of flights by up to 59%, for an extra fuel burn of only +0.2% to +0.7% per flight.

Initiatives leveraging predictive AI and data analytics are underway to reduce contrails, such as:

  • Thales, in coordination with Amelia airline, is testing its Flight Footprint system to identify and adjust routes likely to form contrails, thereby reducing their climate impact.
  • Airbus and Air France, through CICONIA project, are working together with simulations covering 10,000 flights and will move to real-world testing in 2026 to assess how predictive models and operational adjustments can minimize contrail formation.

But with weather, operational, and congestion constraints, flight path optimization cannot solve the contrail problem on its own.

Deploying SAFs as a lever toward greener aviation

11 certified SAFs exist today, with the greatest climate benefits coming from low-aromatic fuels, which reduce soot and contrails. 

The Airbus ECLIF3 project with Neste used 100% low-aromatic HEFA-SPK SAF and achieved a 56% reduction in ice crystal formation and 26% lower contrail impact compared to Jet-A1.

Other SAFs are even more promising than HEFA-SPK at reducing contrails, but their large-scale adoption is limited by blend restrictions and production costs.

Rethinking aircraft and propulsion for the next generation

New technologies, including improved engines, aerodynamics and alternative fuels, will pave the way for a sustainabler aviation, contributing to reduce fuel consumption and contrails emissions. 

How to make it happen ?

In the short run, adjusting routes and altitudes through solutions such as AI-based prediction, large-scale simulation, and augmented decision-support systems provides immediate levers to reduce contrails, as long as they are deployed in coordination with flight safety and air traffic management. 

 

Looking ahead, contrails mitigation is more than an option, it’s an opportunity to accelerate the transition towards the future aircraft: smarter, more efficient, and more sustainable. Next-generation aircraft will feature cutting-edge technologies: more efficient engines, aerodynamic enhancements, hybrid-electric capabilities and lightweight materials & integrated systems. Industry players have already embraced these innovations, working together to achieve net-zero aircraft by 2050, with next-gen single-aisle expected to enter service in the mid 2030s.

With expertise across a broad range of sectors and services, our 3,000+ consultants serve clients worldwide from 50 locations in 19 countries. We have a deep understanding of the acceleration and transformation challenges currently reshaping Aerospace & Air Transportation. We work daily with key players and their supply chains to build a more competitive, resilient, and sustainable aviation sector.

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